That’s according to the AP, of course. Everyone knows that Gavin Newsom wants to be President, even if everything about him seems to remind people of why no one trusts a politician.
If Biden runs again, Newsom will be able to keep his pledge. If Biden doesn’t run, there’s no wat the Newsom is going to be able to resist jumping into the fray. It is said that every politician, even the mayor of the smallest towns in the smallest states, wakes up in the morning and sees a future president in the mirror. That seems doubly true for Gavin Newsom.
As usual, Cooke makes several important points but the main one is that it’s not enough for Joe Biden to just not be Donald Trump. Trump has been out of office for nearly two years and, at some point, Biden’s defenders are going to have to accept that Biden’s mistakes and failures are his own. Instead of continuing to try to find some sort of deeper meaning to Biden’s rambling speeches and his angry declarations, it’s time to admit that the reason Biden seems so empty is because Biden is empty. Biden is a politician who spent the majority of his life in the Senate and whose defining characteristic has always been ambition and an exaggerated faith in his own abilities. After several tries, he was finally nominated for the presidency because he wasn’t Bernie Sanders. He was elected to the White House because he wasn’t Donald Trump. And now, as president, he’s proving that he’s not FDR, LBJ, JFK, Ronald Reagan, Abraham Lincoln, or any of the other presidents to which his defenders have attempted to link him. Some have compared him to Jimmy Carter but, for all his faults, Carter had a good enough advance team that he wouldn’t have been caught dead giving an angry speech against a blood red background.
Instead, he’s Joe Biden. He’s simple-minded Joe Biden, the senator who got rich in office but who believes riding AMTRAK makes him still a member of the middle class. He’s the former Vice President who was apparently not taken seriously be anyone in the Obama administration. He’s the empty vessel who was elected with the understanding that he would serve quietly for one term and then head off to the sunset. Unfortunately, as the country is now discovering, Joe Biden has never been capable of serving quietly. And anyone who thinks that senile Uncle Joe is going to retire after one term is fooling themselves.
I was as shocked as anyone to hear that Asa Hutchinson was thinking about running for President.
Who is Asa Hutchinson? He is one of the most forgettable Republicans out there. The only thing that shocked me more than learning that he was thinking about running for president was learning that he was still governor of Arkansas. I was under the assumption that he had served as governor during the previous decade and had long since gone into retirement. That’s how little of a national impression that Asa Hutchinson has made.
Asa Hutchinson has been around for a while. He’s served in a number of distinguished positions, even if he’s never made much of an impression. His older brother, Tim, served a term in the Senate, from 1997 to 2003. (After a messy divorce, Tim was defeated for reelection by Mark Pryor, who was himself later defeated by Tom Cotton.) When Tim moved up to the Senate, Asa inherited his seat in the U.S. House. In 2001, Asa left the House to serve as the head of the DEA under George W. Bush. Asa first ran for governor of Arkansas in 2006 and lost to Mike Beebe. He ran a second time in 2014 and was elected as a part of the Republican wave. He was reelected, by a record-setting landslide, in 2018. If Asa runs for President, he’ll point out that he was reelected despite the Democratic wave but Arkansas has been trending so red that I think any Republican would have won the 2018 election. It’s going to be a long time before even a moderate Democrat like Mike Beebe or Mark Pryor can again run a competitive campaign in Arkansas.
And now, Asa has announced that he’s exploring running for President as an explicitly anti-Trump candidate in 2024 and potentially competing with Tom Cotton for the right to be Arkansas’s favorite son. In 2024, Asa will be 74 and, as a result of term limits, he will also be out of office. Most people don’t have the slightest idea who Asa Hutchinson is but I think every Arkansas governor thinks that he can be the next Bill Clinton or Mike Huckabee. (Even Mike Beebe considered running in 2016.)
I’ve read that every politician — whether they be a Congressperson, a governor, or just a city council member — wakes up every day and sees a future President when they look in the mirror. That’s probably true. If Jim Gilmore and George Pataki can both run for President, why not Asa Hutchinson? At least, that’s probably what the governor is thinking.
Myself, I wish Asa luck but I doubt he’ll make it to the first caucus. If he runs, he will not only be largely unknown but he’ll also be competing with all of the other anti-Trump candidates, people like Larry Hogan, Will Hurd, and probably Adam Kinzinger as well. And even if Hutchinson does somehow break out of the pack, the explicitly anti-Trump primary electorate is so such a small part of the body that he’ll still be lucky to be much of a factor. On paper, Asa is the type of non-flashy candidate who could have done well 20 years ago but times have changed. Voters want more than a resume now.
The former governor of New Jersey is the perfect example of someone who missed his opportunity. If he had run in the 2012 Republican primaries, he probably could have put up a good fight and he would have been in a strong position in 2016. Instead, he sat out the 2012 primaries and soured Republicans by publicly embracing Obama during the final weeks of the campaign. It’s often forgotten that Obama was struggling up until Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast and gave him a chance to act presidential. By embracing Obama, Christie did the right thing for New Jersey but he pretty much ruined his standing in the GOP.
In 2016, Christie has some success by running as the candidate who would prosecute Hillary Clinton but he was quickly overshadowed by Donald Trump. After dropping out, Christie was one of the first of the former candidates to fully embrace Trump. Christie took a lot of criticism for that and it’s debatable whether or not that paid off for him. Though Trump occasionally used Christie as a surrogate, he never seemed to like him that much or think very highly of him. Most notably, Trump never offered Christie an official role in his administration, despite Christie’s very public declaration that he would have liked to have been Attorney General.
Christie is out-of-office now and probably best remembered, if he is remembered, for being one of the many Trump confidantes to come down with COVID during the final month of the 2020 presidential campaign. Christie has said that he would be interested in running for president in 2024 and he’s hinting that he’s going to go for the anti-Trump lane but it’s hard to see where there’s an opening for him.
Of course, in 2024, Chris Christie will only be 63 years old. In 2028, he will still be younger than Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden were when they were nominated for the presidency. Christie’s moment may seem to have passed but then again, people used to say the same thing about Joe Biden.
Yesterday, when I was profiling Miami Mayor Francis X. Suarez, I mentioned that Florida’s senator, Rick Scott, was also thinking of running for president in 2024.
I was pretty dismissive of Scott’s chances, which should not be taken to mean that I was being dismissive of Scott as a public figure. He was a good governor, serving for two terms. After defeating Bill Nelson in 2018, he’s been a good Senator. I haven’t heard any complaints about him, beyond a few controversial stock purchases and financial investments.
Immediately after the 2018 election, Rick Scott seemed like the most likely Floridian to run for President. He’s since been overshadowed by both Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump and, as I wrote yesterday, it’s hard to imagine him having a lane to run if either one of those two enters the primaries. Scott’s been overshadowed, which is an occupational hazard when you’re a member of Congress. All eyes are on DeSantis right now.
Add to that, Rick Scott will be 72 years old in 2024 and, after a combined 8 years of Trump and Biden, one would hope that the voters would be ready for someone a few years younger.
Again, Rick Scott seems like someone who could be a good President but it’s hard to see any circumstances in which he could win the Republican nomination. Both Trump and DeSantis would have to fall apart (or, in the case of DeSantis, lost reelection in 2022) and Scott would have to find a way to make him stand out from the large number of other senators who are considering a run.
I will actually be surprised if Scott runs. He doesn’t seem to be the type of politician to tilt at windmills. I get the feeing that, as far as 2024 is concerned, Scott will forgo the presidency and continue to do a good job representing the people of Florida in the United States Senate.
There’s a surprisingly large amount of Florida politicians who are considered to be likely to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.
Ron DeSantis is the most obvious contender. He’s the one who gets the most press and, judging by the negative tone of the majority of that coverage, he’s the one who most worries the Democrats.
Sen. Rick Scott has been pretty obvious about his ambitions, though it’s hard to imagine him having much of a lane if both he and DeSantis enter the race.
Sen. Marco Rubio undoubtedly wants another shot at the nomination many expected him to easily win in 2016.
Even Jeb Bush sometimes sounds like he might be thinking of giving it another try.
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz has been hinting at a possible presidential run, though one hopes that he’s merely trolling.
And, of course, former President Donald Trump is now a legal resident of Florida and has made little secret of his desire to get his old job back.
And then there’s Francis X. Suarez. The mayor of Miami may not be a national figure but, out of all the possible candidates from Florida, he strikes me as the one who, excluding DeSantis, might have the best chance to someday be President.
Suarez has been mayor since 2017 and, though it’s officially a nonpartisan position, he’s also a registered Republican. He did, however, endorse Andrew Gillum over DeSantis in 2018 and he reportedly declined to vote for Trump in 2020. Those will definitely be obstacles should he run but they won’t be impossible to overcome. Unlike someone like Adam Kinzinger, Suarez hasn’t built his entire profile on being anti-Trump. Suarez actually does have some accomplishments that he can tout, including a record-low homicide rate. If crime is as big a concern for GOP voters in 2024 as it is in 2021, Suarez could benefit.
(If Suarez does run, he will struggle with anti-Vaxx and the anti-mask mandate crowd. Of course, there’s no way to know how strong either of those movements will be in 2024.)
Earlier this month, Suarez gave an interview in which he said he was interested in running. He would only be 47 years old in 2024 and, if nominated, he would be the first person of Spanish descent to run as a major party nominee. Nikki Haley has apparently already met with him to gauge his possible interest in running for vice president with her. Could Suarez go straight from being mayor to being President? Anything is possible, though it’s easier to imagine him making a credible run for the nomination and then serving in a Republican president’s cabinet before making a second run in 8 years.
Suarez has often spoken of the need to have a new generation of leaders. With Biden’s dazed performance as commander-in-chief, that’s a message that should resonate even more than usual. Suarez is also a good campaigner, more charismatic than someone like Rick Scott while not coming across as being as scripted as Marco Rubio. Francis Suarez is one to watch.
Matt Gaetz is a congressman from Florida. He’s the Republican version of Eric Swalwell, an overgrown frat boy who had the family connections necessary to get involved in politics and who has a safe seat. Much like Swalwell, he’s not a particularly effective Congressman but he is a skilled troll. (In fact, he’s better at trolling than Swalwell and Ted Lieu combined.) Much as Swalwell is known for getting drunk and tweeting, Gaetz is rumored to have a nose for using something a little stronger while he’s tweeting. Much as Swalwell is known for screwing a Chinese spy, Gaetz has been accused of trafficking in minors. And, like Eric Swalwell in 2020, Matt Gaetz has been talking about running for president.
Haven’t we suffered enough?
To be honest, though, I doubt Gaetz will run for president. He’s obviously having too much fun pissing off the liberals in Congress and, assuming he doesn’t lose the 2022 primary, he’ll probably have his seat for life. (That Democratic donors are wasting money on Rebekah Jones’s “campaign” to defeat him is a huge joke.) If Trump runs, there’s no way Gaetz gets in. Gaetz will probably always talk about running but, much like Alan Grayson, I doubt he’ll ever take the plunge.
Since I made fun of Adam Kinzinger yesterday, I suppose it’s only right that I make fun of Marjorie Taylor Greene today.
I would be surprised in this Georgia congresswoman ran for President in 2024 but she did visit Iowa last month, which has led to some speculation. Most of that speculation, of course, has come from Democrats who are gleeful about the idea of Marjorie Taylor Greene having the national spotlight during a Republican presidential primary.
And indeed, a Taylor Greene presidential campaign, even if it was just a primary campaign, would be a nightmare for most Republicans. Imagine this, a QAnon candidate who has just enough of a national profile to probably last through the South Carolina primary. Regardless of how she did in the primaries, she would command the majority of the press coverage. How long before she starts talking about Jeffrey Epstein and the space lasers? How long until she says the fire can’t melt steel and that David Hogg is a paid actor? Not very long, I imagine.
(Make no mistake about it, David Hogg is an idiot but he’s not a paid actor.)
Fortunately, there’s a good chance that Taylor Greene won’t win her Congressional primary in 2022. And, if Trump runs in 2024, it’s doubtful Taylor Greene would run against him. That would be like AOC running against Bernie. So, hopefully, we’ll be able to avoid the spectacle of Marjorie Taylor Greene on the debate stage.
(My personal prediction is that Marjorie Taylor Greene will eventually run for President as a candidate for the Constitution Party. Hopefully, the Libertarians will be smart enough to just say no for once.)
This is the first in an occasional series of posts that will look at some of the people who might run for President in 2024.
Adam Kinzinger is a politician from Illinois who served in the U.S. House since 2010 and whose seat is probably going to be destroyed by redistricting in 2022. He’s a Republican but he’s one of those Republicans who spends most of his time talking about how much he hates other Republicans.
That’s one reason while you will occasionally see an article or a report that lists Kinzinger as a possible Republican presidential candidate in 2024. There’s nothing the media loves more than a Republican who hates other Republicans and, during nearly every presidential primary season, there’s always one Republican who gets a lot of media attention for being a “moderate” but who also gets very little support from the people who actually vote in Republican primaries. Jon Huntsman is an obvious example. Way back in 1996, Arlen Specter and Pete Wilson tried to pull it off. And who could forget John Kasich?
Kinzinger’s claim to fame is that he’s a critic of Donald Trump’s. What the media ignores is that there are a lot of Republicans who have been critical of Donald Trump but who haven’t also damned the entire party in their criticism. Kinzinger would be toxic to GOP primary voters and the Democrats would never forgive him for being a Republican in the first place but he obviously loves the media adulation so it’s not impossible to imagine him running.
It’s also not impossible to imagine him hooking up with one of the third party movements that have popped up in the wake of the Trump presidency. SAM (which stands for Saving America) seems to be a popular destination for Republicans that no one cares about anymore. It’s easy to imagine him and David Jolly barnstorming the country in search of nonexistent votes.
Of course, a more realistic possibility is that Kinzinger will either switch parties or he’ll just end up hosting a show on CNN.
One thing that will not happen will be an Adam Kinzinger presidency.
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