I don’t see Trump winning reelection. I just don’t. His main argument for reelection has always been that the economy was doing so well that it didn’t matter that he was an often clueless vulgarian. But the pandemic has revealed his glaring weaknesses as a leader and I don’t think the economy is going to recover enough by November to convince people to give him another shot. I see Trump losing in November and I see him losing big. I see him taking down a lot of Republicans with him.
Joe Biden will be our next president. He’ll be a terrible president, though I imagine few people will be willing to admit it until after he’s out of office. Many people in the media seem to be assuming that, at the age of 80, Biden is suddenly going to become some sort of inspiring progressive visionary. Biden’s been running for President since before I was born. There’s a reason why he needed a once-in-a-lifetime crisis and a uniquely flawed opponent to win.
As far as the protests go, a lot of Democratic leaders have fooled themselves into thinking that the protests are about Trump as opposed to the system that Joe Biden has spent his entire life protecting and promoting. Those who assume that Biden’s election will magically bring an end to all the strife are fooling themselves.
Like Obama, I see Biden coming into office with a huge Democratic majority in both the House and the Senate. I also see him squandering that majority, in much the same way that Obama did. The Republican Party will be pronounced dead in November just to come back to life in 2022. Will Biden run for reelection in 2024? Many are saying that he won’t but I have a hard time seeing someone who has been running for President for as long as he has just voluntarily walking away.
My main election prediction right now is that we’re all screwed until at least 2024.
2 thoughts on “Election Predictions”
I agree with most of this, although I think there’s a very distinct chance Trump won’t leave office voluntarily, even if he loses in a landslide. He’ll cry “fake votes” and “fraud” and count on William Barr, the Republican senate (before November, while they’re still in the majority) and the Supreme Court to help him out, but I think ultimately it’ll come down to him trying to convince the military to install him into office, and he’s squandered most of his good will over there. Mainly he be angling from behind the scenes for a deal to give him immunity from prosecution if he just goes away. And after that, yeah, Biden will squander his senate majority, the GOP will make a comeback in 2022 — though not at big as they did under Obama because there will be Trump loyalist factions vs. the non-Trumpers duking it out in some states, resulting in some unelectable lunatic-fringe extremists getting endorsements in otherwise winnable house and senate races — and we’ll be headed toward a 2024 match-up with Biden or his heir apparent either in a deadlock-type race with a “kinder, gentler” Republican or headed for another blowout win if the GOP picks another racist, nationalist demagogue. The interesting thing to pay attention to will be in which proportion the Reps try to pretend Trump was some aberration that never happened, and in which proportion do they cling to his message out of fear of losing the hard-right, nutcase contingent that makes up a huge part of their base now. I expect we’ll see finger-to-the-wind unprincipled, spineless worms like Lindsey Graham to try to avoid the subject whenever possible and act like they were never big Trump-backers, while hardened extremist ideologues like Ted Cruz make an aggressive play for the Trump crowd.